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Today at a glance:
⚙️ TSMC: Still Full Throttle on AI
🔬 ASML: Outlook Cools
💊 J&J: Guidance Climbs
🧬 Novartis: CFO Surprise Retirement
💳 American Express: Record Spending
🥤 PepsiCo: Searching for Sparkle
📈 Blackrock: $12.5 Trillion in AUM
🏦 Charles Schwab: Client Momentum
🛩️ United Airlines: Flying Through Turbulence
1. ⚙️ TSMC: Still Full Throttle on AI
Taiwan Semi’s Q2 revenue jumped 44% Y/Y to $30.1 billion, while net profit soared 61% to $12.8 billion, beating estimates thanks to expanding margins. High-Performance Computing (HPC), including AI accelerators, accounted for 60% of total revenue, up from 52% a year ago. Advanced nodes (3nm, 5nm, 7nm) made up 74% of wafer revenue, with 3nm alone rising to 24%, driven by demand from Apple, NVIDIA, and AMD.
Management raised FY25 revenue growth guidance from ~25% to ~30%, citing robust AI momentum and CoWoS capacity expansion (advanced packaging). Q3 revenue is expected at $32.4 billion, but unusually, Q4 is forecasted to decline sequentially, raising questions about tariff-related order pull-ins despite management's reassurances. TSMC is pressing ahead with its $38–42 billion Capex plan, accelerating US expansion in Arizona amid geopolitical uncertainty. No customer behavior changes have been observed, but caution remains around policy risk and currency headwinds.
2. 🔬 ASML: Growth Doubts Loom
ASML, the largest European tech company, grew net sales 23% Y/Y to €7.7 billion (€200 million beat) and EPS was €5.90 (€0.75 beat). Bookings rebounded to €5.5 billion (€1.3 billion beat), including €2.3 billion in EUV orders. Gross margin held steady at 54%, helped by a High-NA system delivery (the most advanced machines) and upgrade mix.
Management reaffirmed full-year 2025 guidance for ~15% revenue growth and ~52% gross margin, but struck a more cautious tone on 2026. CEO Christophe Fouquet cited “increasing macro and geopolitical uncertainty,” warning that growth next year is no longer a given. Tariff concerns loom large, especially for US-bound shipments, imported materials, and potential retaliatory measures.
While AI-related demand remains strong—driving a projected 30% Y/Y jump in EUV sales—ASML’s visibility into customer spending has dimmed. China still represented 27% of system revenue, behind Taiwan at 35%. With rising external risks and a narrowed growth forecast, investor focus is shifting from EUV momentum to policy fallout. Most analysts remained bullish long-term after the call.