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🍄 Nintendo is Overwhelmed
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🍄 Nintendo is Overwhelmed

Can tariffs derail the Switch 2 hype?

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App Economy Insights
May 13, 2025
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🍄 Nintendo is Overwhelmed
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Welcome to the Premium edition of How They Make Money.

Over 200,000 subscribers turn to us for business and investment insights.

In case you missed it:

  • 🪙 Buffett Steps Down

  • 🎮 Console Wars Visualized

  • 🎬 Tariff Trouble in Hollywood

  • 📊 This Week in Visuals: Uber, Shopify, AppLovin, EA…


🎮 Cycle Reset in the Mushroom Kingdom

A year ago, Nintendo predicted it would ship 13.5 million Switch consoles in FY25 (ending in March). Instead, it fell short, moving just 11 million units — the second-worst year in three decades when combining handheld and home consoles.

Enter the Switch 2, launching in June. Pre-orders in Japan alone hit 2.2 million in just three weeks, overwhelming initial supply and hinting at demand that could blow past expectations.

Nintendo is projecting 15 million units sold globally in its first 10 months, while the OG Switch is expected to drop below 5 million in FY26. If the new console hits its target, it’ll debut on par with its predecessor — good news, considering the original Switch is still in the race to beat the PlayStation 2’s all-time record of 160 million units sold.

Nintendo’s strategy? Avoid another Wii U misfire by leaning into the Apple playbook: incremental upgrades that feel familiar but better. The Switch 2 keeps the same core concept but adds more power, backward compatibility, and a fresh coat of polish. It’s a smart move in a cycle where Mario can’t afford to stumble after missing the entire mobile gaming boom.

Today at a glance:

  1. 🍄 Nintendo: Switch 2 Anticipation

  2. 🌊 Sea: Profit Surge

  3. 🚚 JD.com: Fastest Growth Since 2022

  4. 👟 On: Running Ahead

  5. ⏹️ CyberArk: AI Drives Identity Surge

  6. 🏴 Klaviyo: International Expansion

  7. 📆 Monday.com: AI Adoption Accelerates

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1. 🍄 Nintendo: Switch 2 Anticipation

FY25 was a transition year as Nintendo prepped for its next big swing.

The Switch dominated, representing a hefty 93% of revenue, but profit plunged 43% to 279 billion yen ($1.9 billion) as revenue slid 30% to $7.8 billion. With fans holding off on purchases ahead of the Switch 2 launch, software sales also slumped 22% to 155 million units, falling short of the 165 million target set a year ago.

Nintendo’s forecast of 15 million Switch 2 units sold in FY26 looks conservative, but with pre-orders surging, it could be a classic underpromise-overdeliver setup.

But tariffs loom large. With the Americas accounting for 44% of revenue and production still centered in China and Vietnam, Nintendo faces a potential cost surge that could push the $450 price tag higher in the US. CEO Shuntaro Furukawa signaled that price adjustments might be necessary, but the goal is clear: keep the Switch 2 hype alive without sticker shock.


2. 🌊 Sea: Profit Surge

The Southeast Asia giant Sea kicked off 2025 with a $411 million profit—a sharp reversal from last year’s $23 million loss—even as revenue missed estimates by $50 million, rising 30% Y/Y to $4.8 billion.

  • 🟠 Shopee continued to fend off TikTok Shop and Lazada, growing GMV 22% to $28.6 billion and revenue 28% to $3.5 billion. With commissions rising and logistics humming, Shopee posted a $264 million EBITDA—its best ever.

  • 🔵 Monee (formerly SeaMoney) revenue jumped 58% to $787 million, as the loan book surged 77% Y/Y to $5.8 billion, with non-performing loans stable at 1.1%.

  • 🔴 Garena bounced back with bookings—a leading indicator of gaming revenue—up 51% Y/Y, driven by Free Fire’s NARUTO crossover and a broader rebound in engagement.

Group-wide adjusted EBITDA more than doubled to $947 million. With efficiency gains and growing confidence in its full-year outlook, Sea is back in growth mode.


3. 🚚 JD.com: Fastest Growth Since 2022

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