🛍️ E-Commerce Unleashed
Holiday sales are fueling retail’s digital pivot
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E-commerce is surging back into the spotlight. After a post-COVID hangover, online shopping is close to a new all-time high, fueled by record-breaking Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales.
According to Adobe Analytics, US consumers spent nearly $11 billion online on Black Friday, a 10% jump from last year. Cyber Monday is projected to grow 6% to $13 billion. Mobile devices played a critical role, accounting for the majority of transactions. Meanwhile, in-store traffic fell by 3%1, underscoring the growing preference for digital convenience over physical crowds.
What’s behind this rebound? Aggressive discounts, shifting shopping habits, and bold moves by giants like Amazon, Shopify, and Walmart.
Low-cost platforms like Temu and SHEIN are also shaking up the market, forcing competitors to innovate. At the same time, AI-powered tools are quietly reshaping how we shop, from product discovery to checkout.
This holiday season shows how digital platforms are transforming the industry in real time. Let’s dive into the trends and strategies shaping this shift.
Today at a glance:
Cyber week trends.
Shopify’s acceleration.
Amazon takes on Temu.
Walmart’s advertising play.
AI: The quiet game changer.
1. Cyber week trends
The context: In Q3 2024, US retail e-commerce reached 16.2% of total retail sales. It was close to the all-time high reached in Q2 2020 during shelter-in-place orders. After a post-COVID normalization, the trend is clear: e-commerce is eating away at brick-and-mortar and could hit a new record share this holiday season.
Cyber Week (from Black Friday to Cyber Monday) showcased shifting consumer behaviors and the growing dominance of e-commerce.
📦 Digital shift: Several market intelligence firms pointed to the same trend. US e-commerce sales rose double-digit on Black Friday compared to last year, while in-store traffic was relatively flat, notably at Best Buy and Target2. Holiday shopping continued to move online steadily.
📱 Mobile dominates: 53% of online transactions were completed on mobile devices (up from 51% in 2023), marking a continued shift in consumer habits. Faster checkout experiences and better mobile platforms are driving this trend.
📆 Early shopping: Retailers launched Black Friday deals as early as October, with pre-Black Friday online sales surpassing $38 billion3 (+5% year-over-year). This strategy has stretched Cyber Week into a month-long digital shopping spree.
💳 Buy Now, Pay Later: Adobe estimated BNPL loans would grow 11% and drive $9.5 billion in online spending during the month of November. Particularly popular among millennials and Gen Z, this payment method highlights the shift toward flexible financing options.
🏬 Omnichannel in Focus: While in-store traffic declined, retailers that blend physical and online experiences like "buy online, pick up in-store” (BOPIS) are outpacing the rest of e-commerce sales. 85% of US BOPIS shoppers make an additional purchase when they collect their order4.
Key takeaway: The early insights from this holiday season reinforced key shifts in retail: softer in-store traffic, rising digital sales, and a shopping season that stretches through November. Retailers are adapting to these changes, capturing demand earlier and driving convenience-focused strategies.
2. Shopify’s acceleration
With a market share of roughly 10% of US e-commerce (second only to Amazon and ahead of Walmart), Shopify’s performance during Black Friday and Cyber Monday is a bellwether for the broader e-commerce ecosystem.