Fantastic framework! The 6-chart process is exactly the kind of systematic, visual approach that cuts through noise. I especially appreciate the peer comparison section with CRWD vs security peers including ZS. Your point about valuation premiums being fragile is spot-on - the rapid compression in CRWD's multiple after the outage shows how quickly 'premium' status can evaporate when execution stumbles. The observation that ZS maintained more stable valuation through that period is telling. One additional chart I'd add as #7: Customer Cohort Economics / Net Dollar Retention (NDR). For SaaS and subscription businesses, NDR trends reveal whether existing customers are expanding usage or contracting. A rising NDR above 120% signals powerful land-and-expand dynamics, while declining NDR often precedes visible growth deceleration. This would complement your growth chart by showing the quality and sustainability of that growth. It's particularly useful for catching inflection points early before they show up in top-line numers. Thanks for putting this together!
I would add sector group ranking on top of these. Picking stocks from outperforming sectors increases chances of profitability in short to medium term.
Great insight but I'm interested in the last data graph, why are CRWD, Zscaler having negative CAGR if they’re doing so well, is it overvalued, does that then mean Fortinet and PANW present as better opportunities?
Hi Sam! The negative CAGR you're seeing in the last chart applies to the company's valuation multiple (Forward EV/Sales). It's very common for high-growth companies to start with extremely high multiples that naturally compress as their sales base grows and market sentiment normalizes. For this reason, the CAGR of a valuation metric isn't the most relevant figure. Instead, the real insight comes from observing the overall trend: how valuations have converged and which companies still command a premium, giving clear context on current market expectations.
Thank you so much for many wonderful articles.
Fantastic framework! The 6-chart process is exactly the kind of systematic, visual approach that cuts through noise. I especially appreciate the peer comparison section with CRWD vs security peers including ZS. Your point about valuation premiums being fragile is spot-on - the rapid compression in CRWD's multiple after the outage shows how quickly 'premium' status can evaporate when execution stumbles. The observation that ZS maintained more stable valuation through that period is telling. One additional chart I'd add as #7: Customer Cohort Economics / Net Dollar Retention (NDR). For SaaS and subscription businesses, NDR trends reveal whether existing customers are expanding usage or contracting. A rising NDR above 120% signals powerful land-and-expand dynamics, while declining NDR often precedes visible growth deceleration. This would complement your growth chart by showing the quality and sustainability of that growth. It's particularly useful for catching inflection points early before they show up in top-line numers. Thanks for putting this together!
I would add sector group ranking on top of these. Picking stocks from outperforming sectors increases chances of profitability in short to medium term.
Great insight but I'm interested in the last data graph, why are CRWD, Zscaler having negative CAGR if they’re doing so well, is it overvalued, does that then mean Fortinet and PANW present as better opportunities?
Hi Sam! The negative CAGR you're seeing in the last chart applies to the company's valuation multiple (Forward EV/Sales). It's very common for high-growth companies to start with extremely high multiples that naturally compress as their sales base grows and market sentiment normalizes. For this reason, the CAGR of a valuation metric isn't the most relevant figure. Instead, the real insight comes from observing the overall trend: how valuations have converged and which companies still command a premium, giving clear context on current market expectations.