The Cybertruck production ramp is definitely a cautionary tale - going from 250k projections to 5.4k in Q3 shows the manufacturing complexity. But I think the bigger story here is the dual foundry strategy for AI5. Having both TSMC and Samsung lined up reduces single-point failure risk and could accelrate deployment across the fleet. The 6B FSD miles data set is still the largest in the industry, which should give them an edge on edge cases and safety validation when regulators finally do grant approvals.
The gap between Tesla's data advantage and actual commercialization is really the crux of the matter. They have 6 billion FSD miles, but only 12% of their fleet pays for FSD—that's a monetizaton problem, not a technology one. The regulatory approvals for unsupervised driving will take years, and by then competitors like Waymo could have already locked in key metro markets with proven safety records.
The contrast between Musk's aspirational timelines and actual execution is the key investement risk here. From 250k Cybertrucks/year down to 5.4k in Q3 tells you everything about the demand-forecasting challenge. The dual foundry strategy for AI5 is smart from a supply perspective, but those 10x performance claims need proof in silicon not just slides. Still, the 6 billion FSD miles is a real moat if they can actually translate that data advantage into unsupervised approval.
Wow, the part about tapping into existing inventory really stood out. I'm so curious how they manage that production pipeline. Does using current stock suggest a more predictive approach to future demand, given the murcky timeline for things like Robotaxis? Really insightful analysis!
The dreams you can sell are worth more than money.
The Cybertruck production ramp is definitely a cautionary tale - going from 250k projections to 5.4k in Q3 shows the manufacturing complexity. But I think the bigger story here is the dual foundry strategy for AI5. Having both TSMC and Samsung lined up reduces single-point failure risk and could accelrate deployment across the fleet. The 6B FSD miles data set is still the largest in the industry, which should give them an edge on edge cases and safety validation when regulators finally do grant approvals.
The gap between Tesla's data advantage and actual commercialization is really the crux of the matter. They have 6 billion FSD miles, but only 12% of their fleet pays for FSD—that's a monetizaton problem, not a technology one. The regulatory approvals for unsupervised driving will take years, and by then competitors like Waymo could have already locked in key metro markets with proven safety records.
The contrast between Musk's aspirational timelines and actual execution is the key investement risk here. From 250k Cybertrucks/year down to 5.4k in Q3 tells you everything about the demand-forecasting challenge. The dual foundry strategy for AI5 is smart from a supply perspective, but those 10x performance claims need proof in silicon not just slides. Still, the 6 billion FSD miles is a real moat if they can actually translate that data advantage into unsupervised approval.
Wow, the part about tapping into existing inventory really stood out. I'm so curious how they manage that production pipeline. Does using current stock suggest a more predictive approach to future demand, given the murcky timeline for things like Robotaxis? Really insightful analysis!